We're about to see who is serious about electrification

The EV and plug-in hybrid tax incentive, in the current iteration or in its first one, became a controversial political topic. While neither was perfect (and the one with cash on the hood is far better than the original for the consumer, and still encouraged innovation from automakers who’ve sold a large quantity of EVs already), it helped subsidize the cost of bringing greener transportation to the masses.

(If you’re planning on arguing about costing the taxpayers, then also consider the other things we subsidize, like putting corn in gasoline, or other aspects of the oil and gas industry. Jason’s video about ethanol is excellent, and if you haven’t seen it, it’s shared below.)

With the incentive going away soon, we’re about to learn which automakers were actually serious about building EVs and plug-in hybrids, and which were just doing it to take advantage of the incentive and juice sales numbers.

For example, some are pointing to today’s news that Acura is ending the ZDX at the end of the model year. Built atop GM’s Ultium platform, it was one of the two Hondas that were built by GM and sold by Honda. The original deal, mind you, was only supposed to last two years, but some are suggesting that this is the beginning of an exodus from the plug.

Is that ridiculous? I think so.

This week I drove the new Nissan Leaf, and while I’ll have more about that later, it was a car that was developed with the understanding that it likely wouldn’t be eligible for any federal tax incentive. Nissan knew it was going to assemble it in Tochigi from the get-go, per my sources.

Earlier this year, I drove the new Mercedes-Benz CLA with EQ Technology. That car is coming to the United States as a full EV and as a hybrid, but the point is, we’re still getting the one with the plug. The GLC, also with an EV option that I drove the prototype of, is coming here. Neither of those was going to have the incentive.

BMW’s new iX3, the first Neue Klasse vehicle, rides on its new EV architecture that will be coming to the United States.

While those two Germans I mentioned are technological marvels, the new Leaf is priced extremely well. It’s the cheapest crossover on the NACTOY long list by like $10,000.

GM has a plethora of EVs that it’s still apparently committed to, including the return of the Bolt (while it’s not changed much at all, it’s still going to be an option).

The Koreans are also pushing EVs hard (along with PHEVs, hybrids, and EREVs soon). Even Toyota has a slate of new EVs coming to the U.S. at the moment. Yes, that Toyota.

All of this is before the dedicated EV makers, like Scout Motors, Slate Auto, Rivian, and Tesla.

The run-up to the end of the incentive is, of course, pushing people to move on deals now instead of waiting. That will juice sales numbers. We’ll have to check in a little bit after the incentive ends to see how much the incentive was pushing driving sales, and what incentives are available from OEMs to help sell cars.

It doesn’t hurt that the auto industry will be battling a recession, which will also skew auto sales down, making it not the most scientific of tests. We’re already seeing some recession indicators.

Sales will slow, for sure. But some automakers are still working on delivering EVs. Yes, those are global automakers, and it’s important that they sell cars in countries that believe in climate science. However, many of them will still bring their new cars and put them on dealership lots here.

We will learn, though, who was serious about electrification.

What will be important is when you’re reading coverage, to be able to seek out some context. Are sales down because of the recession, or because nobody wants EVs? What’s driving each individual’s decision on a specific model?

I hope to help you all with that context, but misinformation is out there, and it’ll only be fueled more now by the incentive disappearing.