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In Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan, the movie opens with a bit of a misdirect. The Enterprise is commanded by a Vulcan named Saavik (played by Kirstie Alley in her film debut), and the ship receives a distress call. The Kobayashi Maru is in trouble, and Saavik decides to violate the Organian Peace Treaty to rescue the ship.
The audience is then shown all of our favorite Enterprise crew dying as three Klingon Battlecruisers attack the Enterprise. Saavik orders deploying the log buoy and that all hands are to abandon ship.
Suddenly, you hear Admiral James T. Kirk’s voice, ordering someone to “open it up.” A set of doors opens, revealing that it was all a test in a Starfleet Academy simulator room on Earth, and all of our favorite characters aren’t actually dead. Kirk later says to Spock, “Aren’t you dead?” That’s foreshadowing for later in the movie.
Saavik is troubled by this test of her command ability throughout the movie, and the “Kobayashi Maru Scenario” establishes itself as a concept that is actually taught in colleges across the globe.
Aside from establishing for future issues that I’m a Trekkie, I’m also bringing this up because the Kobayashi Maru Scenario is a No-Win Scenario. It’s a test of character. Right now, the automotive industry is in a no-win scenario of its own regarding where to build and expand in the United States.
The recent Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raid on Hyundai Motor Group and LG Energy Solutions in Georgia further brings home that point. It has caused the delay of construction there, and LG Energy Solutions has also recalled workers from Spring Hill, Tennessee, citing the raid as a concern for its workers.
In choosing the site outside of Savannah, Hyundai Motor Group took advantage of some incredible incentives offered by the local government. The site was already prepped for a big manufacturer to come in, and Hyundai signed the deal pledging that at least 8,500 people would be employed at the complex. It was a huge boon to local businesses and will likely be a big boost to the local economy.
As it turns out, a local candidate for Congress called ICE and was allegedly the triggering point for the raid. The judicial warrant only had four names listed, but ICE took nearly 500 into custody. Not only is it a black eye for the U.S.’s global reputation, but it’s also a black eye for the reputation of Georgia as it attempts to attract more businesses. (Side note: Georgia just lost Marvel Studios, citing rising labor and healthcare costs.)
Auto manufacturers like choosing the American South for a variety of reasons. Republican-led states pride themselves on being pro-business and roll out mega incentives to encourage manufacturing within their borders. These states also tend to discourage unions, such as the United Auto Workers (UAW), from getting a foothold in their territory. Auto manufacturers can often save on some labor costs that way.
So what is an automaker to do? Invest in a part of the country that they see as pro-business, and risk being raided by the government based on, let’s face it, racist reasons? Or, do they build in a more blue state and have to contend with the UAW?
Remember, the UAW is pro-Trump tariffs, even as tariff-related parts shortages shut down plants. Even as those tariffs accelerate inflation, raising the price of everyday goods.
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So it’s a bit of a Kobayashi Maru situation for automakers. Many have invested big in the United States, most before Trump even won a second term in office, and now those investments are at risk if a random troll decides they want to make a political statement.
Packing up and moving to a blue state comes at a significant cost, and partnering with the UAW comes with increased costs and increased risks as well.
An automaker could choose not to attempt to save the cargo vessel, I mean, not invest in the United States at all, but if they still want to sell here, the wildly unpredictable tariff situation makes that a challenge.
It might even be more cost-advantageous to completely give up on the United States altogether. That might not make financial sense, but limiting future investment might be the most viable business strategy going forward.