Trying to make sense of it all

The United States’ war with Iran has entered another week, and the fact remains that it is ongoing with no end in sight. Yes, I know what President Trump and his administration have said about the war publicly and on social media, but the situation is growing more into a quagmire of epic proportions.

Over the weekend, the President began requesting that typical U.S. allies assist in keeping the Strait of Hormuz open — which isn’t that is what Trump’s “Board of Peace” is supposed to be for? — and those typical allies telling him to get bent.

Aside from the United States seeming to be more isolated now than Iran, there is finally an international response to Trump that isn’t praise, support, and adoration.

He’s surrounded by “yes, men,” and for the past year, his most outrageous tendencies were treated like quirks to work with, instead of the batshit craziness that it actually is. You see it in American business, too. Companies praise Trump for his support, even though his tariffs and business policies are totally grinding the economy — and sales — to a halt.

I’ve heard more than one automotive executive praise Trump’s tariffs as a way for American OEMs to compete on a level playing field with global automakers (including the Chinese). Maybe that’s true. Maybe there is some positive to Trump’s tariffs, but praising him in the short term has just opened him up to doing more destruction to the economy long term.

The last time I checked, people need to be able to afford cars to go out and buy a new one. I don’t think that’s changed. And while we’re not at the worst of the affordability crisis, we are careening towards it.

Trump has earned the nickname TACO, because Trump Always Chickens Out. When he’s faced with backlash, he has a tendency to stand down. He’ll come up with some silly excuse to save face — because his ego is precious — but someone telling him “No” is powerful because he’s hardly had that in his life.

So now we have a war that is driving up oil prices. Aluminum Bahrain has cut 19% of its aluminum production, which is a material that I’m told is used quite a bit in automobiles. If the best time to push back against Trump was shortly after coming into office, when he was threatening his tariffs, the second-best time to push back would be right now.

“Chad, you keep telling automakers to stand up for themselves, and they never do,” you say. And you’re right, this isn’t the first time I’ve suggested this.

But let’s have a little thought experiment. Over the past year, what is the one tool at his disposal that Trump has pulled out when other countries make him mad? That’s right. Tariffs. How is the president likely to respond to allies telling him that he got into this war on his own, and he can deal with the consequences on his own?

I’ll give you two guesses, but you’re probably only going to need one.

Maybe it won’t get that bad? Trump has loosened sanctions on Russia — allowing them to sell oil already at sea — even though the Russians are helping the Iranians kill Americans. Also, just today, the Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent said that the U.S. is letting Iranian oil tankers also traverse the Strait.

I guess we gotta do whatever it takes to keep oil prices down because solar is woke. It would’ve been nice to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve before launching a war that would drive up prices, but I’m far from a “stable genius.”

As many of you know, the automobile purchase is often the second-largest purchase a person makes in their lifetime. Every auto worker's job is like six other jobs related to it. The economy depends on automotive production, but automakers need customers. The worse our economy gets, and the more of a pariah we are to the rest of the world, the fewer customers automakers are going to have.

Is it going to get that bad? I don’t know. I could just be doing some Doomerism on this Monday morning. But if I were in a C-Suite of an American automaker this morning, I’d at least be giving it some thought.